Home consents up, property prices plateau

New data shows increased residential building activity and investment levels, even as property values remain broadly stable across most regions. This signals a housing market driven more by supply than capital growth.

According to Statistics New Zealand, 36,944 new homes were consented in the year to January 2026. This represents a 9.3% increase compared with the previous 12 months, reflecting continued demand for new housing across both urban centres and regional areas.

The total estimated value of new residential work reached $16.702 billion over the same period, up 7.7% from the year before, per Interest NZ. 

The growth is being recorded across multiple regions, with construction activity evident in both larger metropolitan areas and surrounding towns. 

Canterbury in particular continues to see consistent development in subdivisions and new-build projects in areas such as Rolleston, Lincoln, and Rangiora.

Industry observers note that the increase in consents and construction spending suggests a sustained period of building activity, supported by stronger buyer demand and moderate economic confidence.

In contrast, housing values have remained largely flat over the summer. While construction activity is ramping up, property values are telling a different story.

The latest Quotable Value (QV) House Price Index shows the national average residential value rose just 0.2% in the three months to the end of February 2026, bringing the average home value to $909,139. 

That figure is 0.4% lower than at the same time last year, but remains 21.5% higher than in March 2020.

QV spokesperson Simon Petersen said the market had experienced one of its flattest summer periods in recent years.

“Residential property values have remained largely static this quarter, and yet the housing market has continued to tick along with activity remaining relatively robust in many parts of the country,” he said.

Across the main urban areas, the South Island generally showed more upward movement than the North. Dunedin recorded a 2.6% quarterly increase, while Timaru values rose 2.1%, Invercargill 1.8%, and Christchurch 1.1%. Nelson was the only major South Island centre to see a small decline.

“It’s interesting to note the relative strength of property values across much of the South Island compared with the North Island. 

“Of the larger urban areas we monitor on the mainland, only Nelson recorded a small reduction this quarter,” Petersen said.

In Canterbury, average home values rose modestly by 1.1% over the quarter to $795,556, 3.3% higher than at the same time last year. 

Within the region, Waimakariri values grew by 1.9%, while Selwyn and Hurunui recorded marginal declines of 0.1% and 0.4% respectively.

Local QV valuer Michael Tohill said residential activity in Christchurch remained steady across most property types, with continued interest in both new builds and lifestyle properties in nearby districts.

“Likewise, the Selwyn market remains busy with a large number of new builds in Lincoln, Rolleston and Darfield. 

“The market for lifestyle and new-build properties in Waimakariri has also been busy with good sales turnover.”

Nationally, Auckland’s average value fell 0.3% over the quarter, and Wellington dropped 0.4%, continuing a pattern of mild declines in some North Island centres.

Petersen said listing levels and buyer demand appeared well balanced, keeping prices stable for now.

“But optimism seems to be growing as we start to see early signs that the wider economy may be picking up again. 

“This will inevitably have implications for the housing market in the year ahead, as interest rates, employment trends and overall economic conditions continue to shape housing market activity,” he said. 

“At the same time, global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions mean the outlook remains somewhat murky right now, particularly when it comes to interest rates and inflation. 

“The next month or so should paint a clearer picture of what we can expect in 2026.”

Together, the data points to a housing market in transition—where strong building activity is helping to stabilise prices, even as broader economic signals remain uncertain.